AC Transition Model — Fiscal Bridge & Adverse-Case Gates

Implements Appendix B.7 (taxable-base sensitivity), B.8 (cash identity), and Appendix P §§3, 5–6 (schedule, adverse cases, pass/fail; gates split into absolute rules and horizon-relative outcomes — extend the horizon and watch which outcomes it buys). Framework v1.218 · Dashboard v0.7 · All figures are real (constant) dollars — a proxy for claims on the resource basket, per Appendix G; an NRCI unit-denominated view is the roadmap. Fed-held debt carries 0% from day 1 per Debt Clarity. Defaults are the reconciling central case [M]: passes every gate and all six individual adverse cases; the Combined case still fails pending the conditional ΔM_S schedule (v1.218 work). The two assumptions carrying the result — 5% growth and $5.3T protected outlays — are sliders: stress them.
scenario hash (SHA-256)—

Central Parameters

Adverse Cases — Appendix P §5

Scenario File

Export before you argue with it; the hash above commits the exact parameter set. Non-erasure applies: keep every exported scenario.

Appendix P §6 — Pass/Fail Gates

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Fiscal Bridge — $T per year

Consumption-tax receipts Recoveries + other + growth receipts Outlays + debt service ΔM_S used Unfunded residual

B.8 Schedule — every year, no skipping (P §3 minimum Y1–Y15; horizon adjustable)

Pool 1 (private compliance recovery, ~$450–520B) is real-resource recovery and never appears in this cash identity — it is reported to the NRMS as liberated labor, per B.8. Blue rows: Phase 2 Base Dividend active. Required Bridge_t = Outlays_t + DebtService_t − Receipts_t − Other_t − Pools 2–3_t − Growth-linked_t. ΔM_S may fund only the positive residual, within caps.